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by Walter Fox

As you’re probably aware, a number of market systems exist that claim to be sure money makers. That shouldn’t be surprising given the number of market traders expending time and effort on developing systems to capitalize on trends and anomalies within the market. But not all these systems are as reliable as they claim to be. Smart traders will choose carefully, or watch their hard-earned capital drain away.

Theta decay is one much-hailed example of such systems. The name itself is surely impressive. The fact is, though, that theta decay rests on a very fundamental concept in option trading the fact that options expire on a set date.

This means that options do not have a fixed value. Instead, their value changes as the expiration date draws near. Analysis of option trading trends shows that price spread is greater closer to the issuance date. As the strike date approaches, the spread decreases.

The reason an option trading system using theta decay analysis works is because there is a more perfect information system in place for options than stock issues. Option trading is a more information efficient market because of the expiration date. Keen traders who keep up with the information flow can stand to make big gains from a system using this analysis.

But how does one put theta decay to play in stock options trading? It’s not as difficult as you might think. The key insight is that the time value of money changes faster as the expiration date approaches. Studies have found that an option’s time value falls according to a linear pattern before reaching the last thirty or so trading days before its expiration date.

It is those last thirty days when theta decay techniques are most effective. During those last thirty days, the rate of descent for the time value becomes steeper. But you can profit from this accelerated loss by holding the right positions.

For example, you could hold a short position in an option approaching expiration while simultaneously selling an inverse call option. This benefits you in two ways. First, you reap a benefit if you sell the call at a premium compared to the actual value. Second, you can also realize a gain on the short position, assuming that the option does not finish in the money on the positive side.

If you get your timing right and keep an eagle eye out for option information, theta decay is a useful tool to employ with your stock options trading. As with any system, there is always the possibility of losing your principal through incautious application of the technique. However, if you are attuned to the market and carefully scrutinize expiration dates, you can easily find yourself making money with this effective and under-utilized strategy.

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